Wednesday, May 19, 2010

These Odds Just Don't Add Up


The NBA draft won't take place until June 24th, but for all intents and purposes, the John Wall sweepstakes is over. By winning the draft lottery, the Wizards earned the right to take the Kentucky point guard with the top overall pick. This despite only a 10.3-percent chance of coming away with the number-1 selection. Call it luck if you will, but what I call it is wrong.

This is the sixth straight year the team with the best odds failed to win the lottery. New Jersey lost 70-games, was swept by Washington this season, yet ended up with the third pick in the draft. How does that happen? Right about now New Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov is probably thinking, "Can I get my money back?" The answer is "Nyet!" There are two marquee talents in this year's draft: Wall and Ohio State guard Evan Turner. The Nets won't be getting either of them.

I understand the rationale of the draft lottery and why it was put in place. Teams were tanking it to get the top overall pick. In the NBA, when one player can make such a huge impact, the temptation to lose games in order to select the next franchise saver is too much. That being said, it's time to, at the very least, tweak the process. This is no knee jerk reaction, David Stern...The NBA commissioner has to realize his quest to maintain the integrity of the regular season has resulted in a system that just doesn't make sense.

If Stern is dead set on keeping the lottery in place, things need to drastically change. A team like the Nets should've had a better than 25-percent chance of getting the number-1 pick. Here's the way it should be: There are 30-franchises in the NBA- we don't need all 14 that fail to reach the playoffs in the lottery. The teams with the 7-worst records should have a shot at the ping pong balls with the odds as follows:

1. 40% chance
2. 25%
3. 15%
4. 7%
5. 5%
6. 4.5%
7. 3.5%

Is that so hard? It doesn't guarantee anything, but it's a hell of a lot more fair then what's currently in place. With all these percentages, I now feel like Al Gore having taught some kind of economics class or global warming study session. For David Stern and the NBA...here endeth the lesson.

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